Nigeria’s Oil Grip Slips: U.S. Imports Crash Nearly 50% as Rivals Seize Market Share.

Nigeria is rapidly losing ground in the U.S. oil market, with new data revealing a sharp and sudden drop in crude exports at the start of 2026. In just one month, shipments to the United States nearly halved – raising fresh concerns about the country’s position in the global energy race.

Figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that imports of Nigerian crude plunged by 47.16%, falling from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to just 1.664 million barrels in January. That’s a steep drop of 1.485 million barrels- one of the sharpest short-term declines in recent years.

The financial impact mirrors the fall in volume. On a customs basis, exports dropped from $217.36 million to $115.99 million within the same period, while cost, insurance and freight valuations also slid from $223.10 million to $118.95 million. Altogether, the figures point to a significant slowdown in both demand and trade activity.

Interestingly, the gap between customs and CIF values narrowed during the period, suggesting lower shipping or insurance costs – or possibly shorter supply routes.

The slump is happening alongside a broader cooling in U.S. oil demand. Total crude imports into the U.S. fell by 5.1%, dropping from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January. In value terms, imports declined from $11.41 billion to $10.56 billion, signalling a wider slowdown in global oil trade.

Rivals Step In as Nigeria Slips

While overall African exports to the U.S. remained steady at 6.933 million barrels, Nigeria is clearly losing its edge to competitors.

Angola recorded a massive surge, with exports jumping from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January. Ghana also entered the scene strongly, shipping 738,000 barrels after recording no exports the previous month.

On the flip side, Libya saw its exports drop sharply, falling from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels.

Nigeria’s share of U.S. crude imports has now weakened significantly – from 1.59% in December to just 0.88% in January – highlighting how quickly market dynamics can shift.

Crude oil still dominates Nigeria’s exports to the U.S., but its share is shrinking. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria dropped from $297 million in December to $183 million in January, with crude accounting for about 63–65% of that total, down from over 73% previously.

Meanwhile, the U.S. widened its trade surplus with Nigeria, rising sharply from $84 million to $419 million. This was driven by a surge in American exports to Nigeria, which climbed from $381 million to $602 million – even as Nigerian exports declined.

Across Africa, the U.S. flipped to a $503 million trade deficit in January, reversing a $174 million surplus recorded in December.

Rising Output, Falling Demand

What makes the situation more striking is that Nigeria’s oil production is actually increasing. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported output of 1.64 million barrels per day in January 2026, up from 1.55 million barrels in December.

Yet, higher production has not translated into stronger demand from the U.S., suggesting that global market forces are outweighing local gains.

Financially, the state oil company posted a profit after tax of ₦385 billion in January, despite a sharp drop in revenue from ₦4.82 trillion in December to ₦2.571 trillion. The contrast points to cost-cutting and efficiency gains – but also a more volatile earnings environment.

*Policy Pressure and Bigger Concerns*

The decline also comes amid shifting trade policies under U.S. President, Donald Trump, including a slight increase in Nigeria’s tariff rate. While crude oil exports are largely unaffected, the broader policy climate appears to be influencing trade sentiment.

Economist, Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Nigeria’s economy, arguing that trade between both countries is not deeply critical.

However, he pointed to deeper structural issues – particularly Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports and lack of diversification – as the real challenge. He also flagged U.S. visa restrictions as a bigger long-term concern, noting that they limit business interactions and investment opportunities.

The Bigger Picture

Despite the recent drop, Nigeria still remains a major African oil supplier to the U.S. Over the course of 2025, it accounted for more than half of the continent’s crude exports to the American market.

But the latest numbers tell a clear story: global energy flows are shifting, competition is intensifying, and Nigeria can no longer rely on old markets alone.

With rising production but weakening demand abroad, the pressure is now on Nigeria to rethink its export strategy, or risk losing even more ground.